Cyclones and climate change: Mapping social inequality in India’s vulnerable coastal communities

Every year, the planet seems to shake a little harder. Heatwaves scorch crops, floods swallow homes, and storms roar in with growing fury. But among the deadliest of nature’s forces are tropical cyclones and spiraling storms that can tear through lives and livelihoods in a matter of hours.

On the map, India’s 7,500-kilometre coastline appears as a continuous stretch of blue and brown. In reality, it's a frontline, one increasingly battered by climate change, rising sea levels, and a surge in cyclonic storms. A recent study titled “ Community Vulnerability to Cyclones: An Empirical Evidence from Rural India to Improve Resilience” and published in the Journal of Safety Science and Resilience offers a sobering and scientific confirmation of what many coastal communities have long known: the poorest are always hit the hardest.

This study looks not just at where cyclones strike, but at who suffers the most and why. To do this, the authors (Kelechukwu K. Ibe, Owen Chiweshe, Mercy Ichiko Ola, and Shiva Prasad Kollur) used something called the NIPEST framework. To study 66 coastal districts across India. and found that West Bengal and Odisha are among the most vulnerable, while states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Goa are relatively better off. These differences point to deep inequalities. Some communities recover faster, while others struggle for years or are left behind altogether.

So, what is the NIPEST index?

The NIPEST framework looks at six key areas of vulnerability instead of focusing only on storm data like wind speed or frequency, it gives a fuller picture of how disasters affect people’s lives. Here’s a simple, one-line explanation for each dimension of the NIPEST framework:

• Natural: Exposure to environmental hazards like cyclones, floods, or droughts that directly impact communities.

• Institutional: The strength of governance systems, policies, and institutions in managing disasters and delivering services.

• Physical: Quality and availability of infrastructure such as housing, roads, water supply, and health facilities.

• Economic: The financial capacity of households and communities to prepare for, cope with, and recover from disasters.

• Social: Social structures and inequalities (literacy, caste, gender, age, dependence) that shape how people experience risks.

• Technological: Access to and use of technology, early warning systems, and innovations that reduce vulnerability and aid recovery.

Looking beyond the storm: Who is most at risk?

What makes this study different is its focus on people rather than just the power or frequency of cyclones. As the authors put it, “Cyclones don’t discriminate by wind speed, but people suffer differently based on their socio-economic context.”

To understand this, the researchers created a Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). This index used 36 indicators grouped under four categories: demographic structure, social dependence, housing and infrastructure, and economic capacity. Factors such as population density, literacy levels, housing quality, female-headed households, access to sanitation, and reliance on agriculture were all taken into account.

The team used data from the 2011 Census and other government sources, and then mapped these indicators using ArcGIS, a tool that helps in creating, managing, analyzing, and visualizing geographic data. This allowed them to rank districts by vulnerability and highlight areas where social disadvantages overlap with high climate risk, pinpointing the communities most in need of support.

The findings are striking: West Bengal and Odisha are among the most vulnerable states, while Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Goa show greater resilience. Inequalities in literacy, housing, and institutional support explain much of this divide.

Who's at the bottom?

According to the study, 22 coastal districts fall under the ‘very high’ vulnerability category. These are disproportionately concentrated in West Bengal (five districts), Odisha (four), and Andhra Pradesh (four), followed by Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The district of South 24 Parganas in West Bengal, for example, emerges as the most socially vulnerable, followed closely by Kendrapara and Ganjam in Odisha.

These regions are characterised by a lethal combination of poverty, illiteracy, fragile housing, and poor infrastructure. Many are home to high proportions of Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, and large numbers of female-headed or landless households. Access to essential services like healthcare, piped water, and storm-resistant housing remains dismally low. By contrast, districts like Mumbai, Surat, and Porbandar, while exposed to cyclonic risk, demonstrate much lower social vulnerability due to better governance, infrastructure, and economic resilience.

East vs. West: A coastal divide

The east coast—Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal—faces more frequent and intense cyclones. But geography alone does not explain the gap.

• West coast states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra have higher literacy, stronger female labour participation, and more pucca housing. Investments in resilient infrastructure after events like the 1998 Kandla cyclone have also reduced their vulnerability.

• East coast states, despite repeated storms like Fani, Amphan, and Yaas, continue to struggle with poor rural infrastructure and weak social protection. South 24 Parganas, for instance, remains without sufficient storm shelters or embankment reinforcements despite being hit time and again.

Odisha: At the frontlines of changing climate and as testing grounds for resilience

The story of Guptapada, a remote tribal settlement in Odisha’s Khordha district, shows how cyclone vulnerability is a “silent crisis” that stretches far beyond the shoreline. Media reports usually highlight the dramatic landfall and immediate destruction, but for communities like Guptapada, the struggle continues long after the storm has passed. Odisha is among the most cyclone-affected regions in the world, and the study here revealed how the impacts ripple through every part of daily life. Using the NIPEST framework, it became clear that weak technology access, poor institutional support, and limited infrastructure, the “N,” “I,” and “T” of NIPEST were the biggest barriers. These gaps left recovery painfully slow, trapping people in long-term hardship.

Although Guptapada lies miles away from the coast, its dependence on agriculture and fragile, non-engineered houses make it extremely vulnerable to the economic and physical impacts of cyclones. The study shows that these communities face more than just strong winds and floods—they are trapped in a cycle of poverty and underdevelopment that deepens with every storm. Cyclone risk here is not only about climate; it is about inequality. The poorest and most marginalized, especially children and the elderly, are hit the hardest and often take the longest to recover.

Hidden victims

Certain groups face layered disadvantages:

• Children under five and the elderly struggle due to dependence and mobility issues.

• Female-headed households are often overlooked in relief efforts despite shouldering heavy responsibilities.

• Marginalized groups such as SCs, STs, and persons with disabilities often live in precarious, low-lying zones. In Kendrapara, where 35% of households depend on subsistence farming, cyclones destroy both homes and livelihoods—usually without compensation.

Housing and infrastructure: The first line of defense

Housing quality is a decisive factor. Kutcha houses made of mud or bamboo, common in eastern districts, cannot withstand winds of 100 km/h. Without insurance or safety nets, families in such homes remain highly exposed.

Equally important are basic services. Lack of sanitation, clean water, electricity, and healthcare not only worsens disaster impacts but also prolongs recovery and increases the risk of disease outbreaks.

From mapping to action

The index is not just academic. It offers a roadmap for disaster planning and preparedness. Identifying vulnerability hotspots allows policymakers to focus on the most at-risk districts with cyclone-proof infrastructure, targeted relief, and social protection.

Climate change makes this urgent. Data from the India Meteorological Department shows that while cyclone frequency is steady, their intensity is rising, especially in the Bay of Bengal. Warmer seas are fueling storms that intensify more rapidly, making early warnings and preparedness critical.

Policy priorities

The authors urge that social vulnerability metrics be mainstreamed into India’s disaster governance. This means integrating SoVI findings into District Disaster Management Plans, State Action Plans on Climate Change, and national schemes like the NCRMP.

Key steps include:

• Investing in climate-resilient infrastructure such as cyclone shelters, embankments, drainage systems, and raised evacuation routes in high-vulnerability districts.

• Strengthening housing in cyclone-prone clusters through PMAY-Gramin and linking MGNREGA to community asset creation.

• Making early warning systems socially responsive through women’s groups, fisherfolk unions, and SHGs, not just technical alerts.

• Aligning climate finance and CSR investments with social vulnerability, not just physical exposure.

• Expanding research to capture intersections of caste, gender, livelihood, and climate risk.

Looking ahead

India’s cyclone challenge is not just meteorological—it is social, as well. The wind's speed may be a neutral force, but its impact is profoundly shaped by human conditions including the fragility of a home, a community's level of literacy, or the presence of social support systems. Disaster management must shift from a reactive, engineering-heavy model to a proactive, equity-driven one. That means investing first where the poorest live, ensuring last-mile communication, and building protections for marginalized groups like women-led households and tribal communities. True resilience lies not only in stronger walls, but in a more just society where no one is left behind when the storm passes.