When summer brings cyclones: Lessons the subcontinent can’t ignore

Summer has arrived in India, bringing with it the now-familiar rise of pre-monsoon cyclones - an unsettling trend that no longer feels random. In recent years, the subcontinent has seen the formation of powerful cyclones from late April to May, each following its own path, yet all sharing a timing that suggests something deeper. Cyclone Fani in 2019, Amphan in 2020, Tauktae in 2021, Mocha in 2023, and most recently Remal in 2024 all arrived during the pre-monsoon window.

These cyclones may have differed in geography - Fani, Amphan, Mocha, and Remal formed over the Bay of Bengal, while Tauktae came up the Arabian Sea - but their formation reflects a common seasonal trigger. By late April, sea surface temperatures across both basins begin to climb sharply, often crossing 30 degrees Celsius. By late April, sea surface temperatures across both basins begin to climb sharply, often crossing 30 degrees Celsius. This sets the stage for explosive cyclogenesis, particularly when combined with favourable wind conditions and abundant moisture.

What’s more troubling is that the Indian Ocean is heating up at a rate faster than the global average. An analysis of long-term trends found that the basin heated at a rate of 1.2 degrees Celsius per century between 1950 and 2020. Even more concerning, a new projection published in Science Direct predicts that between 2020 and 2100, the Indian Ocean could warm by 1.7 degrees Celsius to 3.8 degrees Celsius per century, unless greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced.

Rapid Intensification: A Growing Forecasting Challenge

While forecasting has undoubtedly improved, meteorological agencies now rely on a mix of satellite observations, ocean buoys, and atmospheric models to identify cyclone formation days in advance. In many cases, this lead time has helped avert large-scale loss of life. Yet even with improved detection, the pace at which these systems intensify is becoming a real challenge. Several recent cyclones, including Amphan and Tauktae, underwent rapid intensification, giving authorities less time to respond. Cyclone Mocha, which lashed parts of Myanmar and coastal Bangladesh in May 2023, was initially expected to be moderate but strengthened quickly, displacing thousands across the region and triggering heavy rainfall and disruption in parts of Northeast India.

No Coast Is Immune Anymore

Closer home, Cyclone Fani in 2019 forced the evacuation of over a million people from Odisha’s coastal belt, while Amphan in 2020 devastated parts of West Bengal and the Sundarbans, pushing already fragile ecosystems and communities into deeper distress. In May 2024, Remal followed a similar arc of impact - less severe in scale but no less disruptive—with extensive flooding reported across Bengal and the Northeast.

Cyclone Tauktae in 2021, although on the west coast, caused severe damage in Gujarat and Maharashtra, killing over 100 people and disrupting pandemic-era recovery efforts. The western coast of India, once thought to be less at risk from cyclones, is now seeing stronger storms more often. Cyclone Tauktae was a clear sign that states like Maharashtra, Goa, and Gujarat also need to prepare better. Densely populated urban areas such as Mumbai are especially exposed, with older drainage systems, informal housing clusters, and a coastline under pressure from both rising seas and land reclamation. With the Arabian Sea warming quickly, experts warn that powerful storms may hit this coast more frequently in the years ahead.

Institutional Progress: Early Warnings and Evacuations

Despite these repeated blows, there have been clear signs of institutional learning. Early warning systems now reach millions via SMS alerts, local volunteers, and public announcements. Evacuation protocols are more structured, with shelters better stocked and medical response teams more quickly mobilised. But gaps remain, particularly in areas where infrastructure is weak or where people have been displaced multiple times. In many coastal regions, homes are rebuilt with whatever material is available, making them vulnerable to the next storm. Urban areas, too, are showing signs of strain. Cyclones no longer spare cities, and their impacts often ripple through power grids, drainage networks, and fragile housing clusters on the margins.

One dimension that is often overlooked but increasingly relevant is the simultaneous rise in thunderstorm and lightning incidents across India. From Bihar to UP and Odisha, hundreds of deaths are now recorded each year due to lightning, particularly during the pre-monsoon season, often affecting those working outdoors or living in poorly sheltered housing. While lightning doesn’t directly influence cyclone formation or strength, its presence inside a developing system is a powerful signal.

Beyond Response: Building Real Resilience

What these recurring storms are forcing us to reckon with is not just a need for better response but for deeper resilience. It’s not enough to track a cyclone or sound the alarm - preparedness has to be structural. That means investing in housing that can survive high winds, restoring coastal ecosystems like mangroves that offer natural protection, and training local communities to coordinate relief before outside help arrives. It also means recognising that some of the worst-affected areas, including parts of the Sundarbans, are on the frontlines of both climatic and developmental vulnerability.

Each summer cyclone offers both a warning and a window: a warning that climate risks are accelerating and a window of opportunity to adapt before the next storm strikes. The window is the time we still have to strengthen our systems, rethink how we build and rebuild, and ensure that the most exposed are not also the most forgotten.

Cyclones will continue to hit India. Whether they bring disaster or disruption depends not just on the storm but on how ready communities in those areas are when it lands.