As India heats up, the effects of climate change are no longer distant forecasts. They’re felt in our homes, our fields, and our water taps. A new study finds that when temperatures cross 33°C, household water insecurity rises sharply. This means longer hours spent fetching water, especially for women, more stress during heatwaves, and growing pressure on already scarce resources.
The study, titled ‘Impact of temperature shocks on household water poverty in India’ is authored by Rida Wanbha Nongbri, Aryama Sarkar, and Sabuj Kumar Mandal. Published in Nature Scientific Reports, it is the first to explore how rising temperatures impact water access at the household level across India.
What is water poverty?
Water poverty doesn’t just mean there’s no water. It refers to not having enough, safe, affordable, and reliable water to meet daily needs like drinking, cooking, sanitation, and hygiene. And when temperatures soar, the situation becomes even more difficult—especially for rural and low-income communities.
Temperatures are rising - and so is water poverty
India has been getting hotter over the years. According to the study, the country’s average annual temperature increased by about 0.012°C every year from 2004 to 2011. Maximum and minimum temperatures also rose steadily.
This rising heat hasn’t affected all regions equally. Some areas—especially parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and eastern and northeastern India—have shifted from low to high exposure to temperature shocks in less than a decade. The impact? More days without water, more time spent collecting it, and higher household stress. While the impacts of these climate-induced shocks on agricultural production, migration, economic growth, and water resources may be well-documented, very little is known about their impact on water resources at the household level.
Water shortages impact marginalised groups, particularly women, the most, who are often responsible for water collection. Rising temperatures are already exacerbating water scarcity and leading to longer daily water collection times. This could worsen with rising temperatures in the years to come.
Household-level data from the India Human Development Survey (IHDS) and climate data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) were used to examine the impact of temperature shocks on water poverty. The study also explored if regions with a greater history of climate variation were less impacted by temperature shocks.
Where heat hurts most
The study found a clear link between temperature shocks and increased water poverty across 379 districts.
The hotter it gets, the worse the water situation becomes. For every extra day above 33°C, water poverty increased significantly. Even moderate heat ranges (13–27°C) showed measurable increases in household water stress. Areas experiencing more frequent heatwaves also saw deeper water access issues.
Rain brings relief if its predictable
On the flip side, rainfall helped reduce water poverty. Areas with more rain—and households that practiced rainwater harvesting—had better access to water. But with erratic monsoons becoming more common, this relief is not always guaranteed. Too much rain at once can increase runoff and reduce recharge potential, while too little causes groundwater stress.
Who is most vulnerable
Certain households are hit harder than others. The study identified key risk factors that make some families more likely to suffer from water poverty.
Low-income households
Less money means fewer storage options and less access to water-saving technologies. Economically disadvantaged households are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of temperature fluctuations.
Lower education levels
Households where the head has little formal education tend to have lower awareness of water conservation options or schemes. The education level of the household head is positively associated with improved water access, highlighting the importance of education in building household resilience to water-related challenges.
Larger families
More people mean more water needs and fewer working members to help fetch it. The physical effort required to collect water becomes more challenging for working members, further straining the household’s ability to meet their water demands.
Urban households experience lower water poverty
Those households, especially in rural areas without piped supply, face longer distances and wait times for water. Urban households experience lower water poverty. This may be due to better access to piped water, improved sanitation, and higher investment in water supply infrastructure. However, urban households often face issues such as ageing infrastructure, high population, inequitable resource distribution and affordability concerns, which may lead to intermittent water supply, particularly in peri-urban areas.
Impact of temperatures on water poverty is less severe in regions with higher temperature variability
The impact of temperature shocks on water poverty is less severe in regions with higher temperature variability compared to regions with lower temperature variability. This could be because people living in regions with high-temperature variability already know how to cope with water stress and practice adaptive strategies such as adopting improved water storage infrastructure and practices such as groundwater recharge systems and diversification of water sources (e.g., reliance on communal wells, piped networks, or tanker supplies) that enhance resilience to sudden temperature shocks. It is thus important to consider both vulnerability and adaptability while understanding household water poverty.
Institutional mechanisms, including community-based water management and early-warning systems for droughts, also play a critical role in fostering adaptive capacity. These strategies collectively enable regions with high-temperature variability to better withstand shocks.
Adaptive responses help reduce poverty in the short term, but sustained warming can intensify water poverty
There are distinct short-term and long-term effects of temperature changes on water poverty. In the short term, higher temperatures may reduce water poverty due to adaptive responses such as enhanced conservation efforts. Short-term increases in surface run-off could also alleviate immediate shortages.
However, sustained warming intensifies water poverty over time. Persistent higher temperatures lead to increased evaporation, reduced groundwater recharge, declining river flows, and frequent droughts, contributing to long-term water poverty. Thus, while short-term temperature increases may offer temporary relief, long-term warming intensifies structural water scarcity.
What measures can be undertaken to improve resilience
The paper argues that:
Investment in climate-resilient and decentralised water infrastructure, such as rainwater harvesting and community-managed storage, is essential, especially in rural areas where water poverty is more acute. Such systems have proven effective and affordable in countries like Australia and Kenya.
It is important that policies not only focus on historically high-risk regions but also prioritise areas with low historical temperature variability, as these are less adapted and more vulnerable to emerging climate shocks.
Social protection programmes, including cash transfers, subsidies for water-saving technologies, and affordable credit, need to be introduced to support low-income households in adopting adaptive measures.
Strengthening localised climate forecasting and data systems can further enable timely, informed responses to temperature shocks.