How is drought in India measured, declared and managed

A drought is an extended period of deficient rainfall compared with the statistical average for a region over several years. It can last for a season, a year or several years, resulting in water shortages for people, livestock and agriculture.

However, drought is not determined by rainfall alone. Its effects can develop gradually, as soil moisture declines, crops struggle to grow, water sources shrink and communities experience shortages. These impacts make drought more complex to manage than sudden disasters such as floods or earthquakes.

Droughts are categorised according to their causes and effects.

• Meteorological drought: Occurs when rainfall is deficient or there are prolonged gaps in normal rainfall. Its severity is assessed through the degree of dryness and the duration of the dry period.

• Agricultural drought: Develops when soil moisture is insufficient to meet crop requirements. It can be assessed using rainfall, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater and reservoir levels.

• Hydrological drought: Occurs when surface and underground water supplies, including those in rivers, streams and lakes, become scarce following inadequate rainfall. Land degradation, changes in land use and dam construction can also influence its severity.

• Socioeconomic drought: Develops when water shortages begin to affect people's lives and livelihoods.

India experienced 18 meteorological and 16 hydrological droughts between 1870 and 2018. All occurred during the positive phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The severe drought of 1876 resulted from the combined effects of ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole. More recent droughts have also been associated with ENSO and sea surface temperature conditions over the Indian and Atlantic oceans.

Drought indicators differ according to the agricultural season and the stage of water stress.

The National Crisis Management Plan document by the Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare classifies ‘early warning indicators’ as:

During the Kharif (June to September)

• Delay in onset of South-West Monsoon.

• Long break during the South-West Monsoon season.

• Insufficient rains and uneven distribution of rains, mainly during the months of June and July.

• Temperature and relative humidity (subject to availability).

• Rise in price of fodder.

• Reduction in reservoir levels and / or in stream flows and depletion of groundwater.

• Drying up of rural drinking water sources

• Declining trend in the progress of sowing as compared to total normal sown areas.

• Out migration of rural population.

During Rabi (November to January)

• Deficiency in closing figures for South-West Monsoon (30th September).

• Depletion of groundwater levels as compared to levels during “normal years.”

• Fall in the level of reservoirs compared to the corresponding period in ‘normal years’ – indication of poor recharge following SW Monsoon.

• Soil moisture stress.

• Temperature and relative Humidity (subject to availability).

• Increase in price of fodder

• Increased deployment of water through tankers

The National Crisis Management Plan document classifies the levels of drought severity into six categories:

A deficient monsoon by itself does not automatically result in a drought declaration. Under the Union government’s Drought Manual, the responsibility for formally declaring drought rests with state governments, which are required to assess a combination of rainfall, dry spells, crop conditions, vegetation, soil moisture and hydrological indicators before carrying out ground verification in affected areas.

The Manual for Drought Management enforces a three-step process to eliminate subjective administrative declarations.

Step 1 evaluates two mandatory meteorological triggers during the monsoon season:

• Rainfall Deviation (RFD): Rainfall deficit equal to or greater than 60 percent

• Occurrence of dry spells. Consecutive 3-4 weeks after the due date for the onset of monsoon with rainfall less than 50% of the normal in each of the weeks is defined as a Dry spell. This indicator is important in that it quantifies the extent of intra-season rainfall variations which is so critical for the health of crops and maintenance of soil and hydrological regime 

• Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI): An index value equal to or less than -1.0, accompanied by a continuous dry spell lasting at least three to four consecutive weeks.

If  Step 1 is met, then the  assessment proceeds to Step 2, which examines four indicators:

India has experienced a rainfall deficit of about 12.3% by the end of the monsoon this year, which has resulted in a 1% decline in the overall sowing area of kharif crops. Paddy coverage has fallen by 16.32 lakh hectares, followed by maize and cotton. Karnataka, Maharashtra, parts of Andhra Pradesh (Rayalaseema), Telangana, and Rajasthan have declared droughts, while other states are now assessing whether parts of their territory meet the criteria for a formal drought declaration. According to the India Drought Monitor, abnormally dry conditions indicating droughts have expanded in the country from 45.9% in the previous week to 46.7% this week.

According to the India Meteorological Department, Maharashtra recorded an overall 18% monsoon rainfall deficit between June 1 and September 25, 2026, with  20 of the state’s 36 districts recording deficient rainfall. Data from the India Drought Monitor shows that 37.3% of the state's area is experiencing extreme or exceptional drought conditions. The most affected regions are Marathwada and Vidarbha, while Konkan is among the least affected regions.  Marathwada shows a 38% rainfall deficit across its eight districts, while Vidarbha has a 27% average rainfall deficit across 11 districts.

The state has activated Trigger-1, which represents an early stage of its drought-response framework based on the following indicators:

• Deficient monsoon rainfall during the 2026 Kharif season

• Prolonged gaps between rainfall events

• Crop damage across several agricultural regions

• Increasing water stress

• Assessment of drought indicators by the Agriculture Commissioner

The affected talukas are spread across 32 districts, with the Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar division having the highest number:

• Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar: 74

• Amravati: 56

• Nashik: 49

• Nagpur: 39

• Pune: 35

• Konkan: 12

The table below shows the districts affected by droughts:

Deficient monsoon rainfall has led to severe water and soil-moisture stress in many districts; long gaps between rainfall and mistimed and variable rainfall have reduced soil moisture during critical crop-growth stages, creating a crisis for major rainfed crops and damaging standing crops, particularly soybean, maize and cotton. Persistence of El Niño conditions has influenced rainfall patterns, leading to a crisis.

The drought declaration has provided immediate concessions and essential support measures to reduce the financial pressure on farming households while authorities assess the extent of crop damage. With Diwali approaching, the Maharashtra government has announced an advance relief payment of Rs 5,000 for eligible drought-hit farmers. Food grains, water-tanker support and fodder assistance is also being provided to affected areas.

The main relief measures undertaken by the Government of Maharashtra include:

• Eligible farmers in notified drought-affected areas will receive the land revenue concessions specified under the government order.

• Eligible agricultural loans will be restructured according to applicable government and banking instructions.

• Recovery of eligible agricultural loans will be deferred under the announced measures, and farmers will need to confirm the procedure with their lending bank.

• Agricultural electricity bill concessions will be provided. Electricity-related relief has been announced for agricultural pumps, along with measures to maintain supply in villages facing water shortages.

• Drinking water and fodder support. Authorities have been directed to arrange water tankers where necessary and make provisions for drinking water and livestock fodder.

• Rural employment support will be provided. Relaxation of employment-guarantee scheme norms is among the announced measures, helping facilitate employment in drought-affected areas.

Cities and districts across Maharashtra are introducing water restrictions from mid-October. The Maharashtra government has directed municipal corporations, municipalities and gram panchayats to impose a minimum 10 percent cut in water supply from October 16, 2026. Pune has announced a suspension of water supply for a day every week, while the Nagpur district has banned the drilling of new borewells. In Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar, in the drought-hit Marathwada region, authorities have restricted the release of water for irrigation and directed industries to increase water reuse. The measures are intended to conserve available water supplies as the state prepares for the dry months ahead.

While the government is now focusing on immediate relief measures, a long-term plan for drought mitigation must include a focus on soil quality, crop management, water management, alternative livelihood opportunities and livestock management. Thus, efforts need to focus on:

• Strengthening watershed management efforts  to improve rainwater retention, soil moisture and groundwater recharge. This can reduce runoff and erosion.

• Expand rainwater harvesting by capturing seasonal rainfall through farm ponds, check dams and local storage structures. This can improve water availability during dry spells.

• Promoting micro-irrigation by expanding drip and sprinkler irrigation to use water more efficiently

• Improve groundwater recharge by recharging wells, constructing percolation tanks and other local structures to improve groundwater availability, especially in drought-prone regions.

• Encourage farmers to shift towards less water-intensive and climate-resilient crops to reduce dependence on rainfall and irrigation.

• Develop, promote and adopt drought-resistant crop varieties that can tolerate water stress and prolonged dry periods to reduce crop-loss risks.

• Strengthen climate-resilient agriculture by using technology to develop weather advisories, improved cropping calendars and efficient farming practices. 

• Improve local water storage and expand decentralised storage systems to retain rainfall closer to agricultural areas. This can reduce dependence on uncertain rainfall.

• Focus on rainfall distribution for better drought planning by considering both the amount and timing of rainfall as a prolonged dry spell during a critical crop-growth stage can damage crops even when seasonal rainfall later improves.

Examples from the ground show that there are signs of hope. Maharashtra has been one of India’s most progressive states in terms of watershed development and participatory water management initiatives and has a number of success stories, such as Ralegan Siddhi, Hiware Bazaar, the work of NGO Soppecom with water users’ associations in Waghad and Palkhed, the work of the voluntary movement Paani Panchayat and the NGO network Afarm, in addition to a number of centrally and state-sponsored programmes.

Positive examples from six villages, namely Thapewadi, Phalakewadi and Muthalane villages in Pune; Randulabad villages of Satara; and Satichiwadi and Shelkewadi villages of Ahmednagar; Kadawanchi village in Marathwada; and recent examples from Taratgaon in Solapur district, Bansawargaon in Marathwada, Kirkasal village in Satara, Jalna district, Keket-Sindgi village in Latur district, Konambe village in Nashik and many others, show that collective efforts at harvesting the available water, using water with care and water budgeting, and long-term planning even before the droughts occur have helped the villages deal with droughts. 

These initiatives focus on harvesting available water, using it carefully, preparing water budgets and planning before drought conditions occur. Together, they show how local water management and long-term preparation can form part of a broader response to recurring droughts.

We as citizens, have a responsibility too. What can we do to manage domestic water demand and support efforts at building drought resilience? Read here to know.