How do we prepare for the late monsoon this year?
Mayank Makhija via IWP Flickr photos
Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) contributes to 82% of India’s annual precipitation, impacting agricultural productivity and water availability in the country. Even a small rainfall deviation of 10–20 % from the seasonal mean can impact agriculture and the economy in a major way.
The latest 2026 forecast by the India Metereological Department (IMD) predicts that the south-west monsoon over the country is likely to be below normal this year. The states of Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana will experience below-normal rainfall; the core monsoon rainfed regions of central and western India are expected to receive inadequate rainfall. Eastern and northeastern regions are expected to perform better compared to the rest of the country.
The word "monsoon" comes from the Arabic word "Mausim", meaning “season”, which refers to seasonal winds which blow in one direction with consistency and regularity during a part of the year and blow from another direction for the rest of the year. According to the Classical theory, the monsoon clouds are formed due to differences in heating up of different parts of the earth due to the heat received from the sun. During summer, the land heats up faster than the surrounding sea. The hot air over the land rises, creating an area of low pressure that attracts cooler, moisture-laden winds from the high-pressure areas over the sea to blow towards land as monsoon winds. These winds cause widespread rains when they reach land and encounter mountain ranges.
However, the phenomenon is much more complex than this. The Indian summer monsoon is not only affected by the amount of energy available from the sun, but also how much water vapour is available in the air and how well it moves upwards to form clouds. According to the modern Air Mass Theory, the monsoon happens because of modification in the planetary winds of the tropics and the shifting of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a band of clouds consisting of showers and occasional thunderstorms that encircles the globe near the equator. The ITCZ is created due to the convergence of the trade winds that cover the earth’s surface – winds in the tropics that move predominantly from the east and curve towards the equator. When the north-east trade winds from the Northern Hemisphere and the south-east trade winds from the Southern Hemisphere come together, it forces the air up into the atmosphere, forming the ITCZ often referred to as the Monsoonal Front.
The earth’s axis is tilted, and this determines the amount of rays that an area on the earth receives from the sun throughout the year. During summer in the northern hemisphere, the Tropic of Cancer receives direct rays from the sun, and the Asian landmass can get very hot under the summer sun, creating an area of low pressure. Oceans warm more slowly, so they stay cooler, creating an area of high pressure. Air always moves from high pressure to low pressure. So winds from the Indian Ocean rush towards India, carrying lots of moisture. This wind shifts the ITCZ towards the north, bringing it closer to the Indian subcontinent and pulling the rain clouds along that trigger the monsoon.
The southeast trade winds of the southern hemisphere cross the equator and start blowing in southwest to northeast direction under the influence of Coriolis force. These displaced trade winds are called south-west monsoons when they blow over the Indian sub-continent.
Illumination of the Earth by the Sun on the day of summer solstice in the northern hemisphere.
In the month of July the ITCZ shifts to 20°- 25° N latitude in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, and the south-west monsoon winds blow from two arms, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The ITCZ in this position is often called the Monsoon Trough – an area of maximum rainfall.
Global circulation of Earth's atmosphere displaying Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and polar cell.
The Arabian sea arm causes rainfall along India’s western coast, while the Bay of Bengal arm moves across the eastern coast and brings rain to the southern slopes of the Shillong plateau. The Himalayas act as a barrier and herd it towards northern India. The two arms converge over Punjab and Himachal Pradesh by mid-July.
Studies show that onset timing can serve as an indicator of monsoon strength, with delayed onset found to be linked to a weaker monsoon. The onset of the monsoon is determined by factors such as the weakening of jet streams, namely the westerlies (winds that blow from west to east); the strengthening of easterlies (winds that blow from east to west); and the formation of cyclonic systems in the Arabian sea that help in the northward progression of the South West monsoon. El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases play important roles in determining onset timing of the monsoon. Climate change has intensified these interactions, thus increasing the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Rising Land Surface Temperatures (LST) due to global warming and land-use changes also contribute to this onset variability.
Differential heating of land and sea
The building of low-pressure areas in the North West Indian landmass due to intense heat and high-pressure conditions over the Indian Ocean favours the northward shift of the ITCZ and aids in the positive progression of the south-west monsoon.
Positive development of jet streams.
Jet streams are wide bands of high-speed winds that blow and meander in the earth’s atmosphere in one direction. There are three jet streams that are thought to affect the Indian summer monsoon – the subtropical westerly (STJ), the tropical easterly (TEJ), and the Somali or cross-equatorial jet stream. In winter, strong west-to-east wind, the westerly jet (STJ) blows across India to the north and south of the Himalayas keeping India dry and cool. By late May, the STJ moves north of the Himalayas, flipping a switch that signals the start of the monsoon, while a different jet stream forms over the south of India, the tropical easterly jet (TEJ). It blows the opposite way (east to west). Its north–south movement during the season decides where the rain concentrates. From the Indian Ocean, the Somali jet rushes across the equator, carrying huge amounts of moisture. This is the fuel for monsoon rains.
Southern Oscillation and Al-Nino (ENSO) events
El Niño events are often linked to below-average rainfall in India, while La Niña years are found to lead to above-average precipitation. El Nino happens because of the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific that lead to shifts in atmospheric circulation that impact the Indian monsoon negatively. In contrast, La Niña events are caused by cooler sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific and lead to above-average rainfall across most of India. However, the relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and India's monsoon rainfall isn't always straightforward. There have been El Niño years where India received above-normal rainfall, while some La Niña years have resulted in below-normal precipitation.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
Known as the "Indian Niño," a positive IOD (warmer western Indian Ocean) strengthens the monsoon, while a negative IOD weakens it.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
This is a 30-60 day eastward-moving tropical rainfall pattern that affects the Indian monsoon. Its active phase over the Indian Ocean enhances monsoon rains and helps its early onset, while its prolonged stay over the Pacific ocean causes "break" monsoon conditions.
Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISOs)
These are northward-propagating convective systems from the Indian Ocean that heavily influence the summer monsoon variability and intensity and can lead to extreme rainfall events in the June-September season.
Hadley and Walker Cells
Hadley cells act as north–south circulation loops for the monsoon winds. Stronger Hadley circulation leads to stronger monsoon rains. Walker cells act as an east–west circulation loops leading to weaker monsoons in India
A range of other factors also affect the monsoon. The details can be found here
According to IMD and Skymet, factors such as weak La Niña-like conditions transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific; the possibility of the development of an El Niño during May to July with a 61% probability that can intensify due to climate change and can persist till the end of 2026; neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions and below-normal northern hemisphere snow cover from January to March 2026 are expected to affect the monsoon onset negatively this year. Both forecasting agencies indicate that the first half of the monsoon (June and July) may remain relatively stable. Skymet expects June rainfall at around 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a 40% chance each of it being normal or below normal. The real shortfall is expected in the second half, particularly August and September, when El Niño's impact will be fully visible.
Rainfall forecast for the 2026 South West Monsoon season.
Delayed monsoon onset can disrupt cropping calendars, shorten growing seasons, and increase the risk of crop failures affecting rural livelihoods and urban economies, impact water availability and affect public and ecosystem health. One sixty six major reservoirs across the country are at present filled to 41% of their capacity, which is 14.7% higher than last year and 26% above the ten-year average. It is expected that these can serve as buffers to support irrigation needs for crops during critical growth phases. However, large parts of central, western, and peninsular India that depend on rainfed agriculture will be under risk. The temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall happening between July and September will be important and determine the crop yields. Thus, variability, rather than aggregate rainfall, will determine the outcome of the 2026 kharif season.
While a lot needs to be done in terms of institutional coordination and capacity building, policy integration and technology adaptation in the long term, some short-term/immediate measures can be undertaken to prepare for the deficient monsoons and increase resilience.
Agricultural strategies and crop planning
Switching to water-efficient crops: Discourage paddy farming in rainfed zones and encourage farmers to shift to legumes, oilseeds, and millets, which require less water and are more resilient to stress.
Diversification: Utilise multi-cropping to hedge against total crop failure
Adoption of micro-irrigation: Implement drip and sprinkler irrigation to increase water use efficiency and reduce waste. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, micro-irrigation can save up to 40-50% of water and improve crop productivity by 20-30% and can be effectively used for horticultural crops, oilseeds, and vegetables. It can be used in water-stressed states such as Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY) has played an important role in scaling up micro-irrigation coverage across India.
Using drought-resistant seeds: Switch to fast-maturing or drought-tolerant seed varieties and promote heirloom and native seeds for the Kharif season.
Encourage use of drought-tolerant crop varieties: Institutions such as the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) have released numerous new varieties of pearl millet, pigeon pea and sorghum that require less water and possess shorter growth durations, making them well-suited for drought-prone regions. Adoption of such crops can improve yields by 20-30% under drought stress.
Promote conservation agriculture (CA): An integrated approach involving minimum soil disturbance (zero or reduced tillage), diverse crop rotations, and organic soil cover (mulching) to reduce soil erosion, improve the soil’s water-holding capacity, reduce evapotranspiration losses, and stabilise crop yields under drought-prone conditions.
Maintain and enhance soil moisture: Through techniques such as contour bunding, terracing, and graded border strips that help reduce runoff and allow greater water infiltration. The use of cover crops and green manure minimises soil exposure to sunlight, thereby reducing evaporation. Application of organic farmyard manure, compost, and biochar can also be encouraged to improve soil structure, increase its water-holding capacity, and support microbial activity, making the soil more drought-resilient.
Conduct bio-fertiliser and bio-pesticides trainings: Also expand infrastructure throughout the country, especially in rainfed areas, to safeguard against pest and disease outbreaks and preserve soil moisture in these times of fertiliser crunch due to the war.
Encourage Participatory Water Management : This involves collective decision-making by farmers in planning, budgeting, and distribution of water resources based on local availability and crop requirements. This can help communities use limited water resources optimally during droughts through farmer-led water budgeting, prioritisation of crops, and equitable distribution of irrigation.
Involve Farmer Producer Organisations to build resilience: Farmer Producer Organisations (FPOs) are legally recognised collectives of farmers that pool resources for better access to inputs, credit, insurance, post-harvest infrastructure, and climate-resilient technologies. In drought-prone regions, FPOs can help by procuring drought-tolerant seeds, micro-irrigation kits, promote crop diversification, and facilitate collective marketing to stabilise farmer incomes.
Use of technology such as Remote Sensing and GIS: This can help to provide early drought warnings and timely advisories and also help with crop insurance claims, and policy decisions at regional and national levels, enabling better resource management during droughts.
Water conservation and management
Repair existing water structures: Immediately repair old, existing canals, reservoirs, and tanks to prevent leakage before the rains arrive.
Build local reservoirs: Utilise Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) workers to urgently construct new ponds and check dams for groundwater recharge.
Groundwater regulation: Implement stricter regulations on groundwater pumping to prevent exhaustion of aquifers during dry spells.
Encourage watershed management : To enhance groundwater recharge, restore degraded lands, and improve agricultural productivity in drought-prone regions
Rainwater Harvesting: Promote household and community-level rainwater harvesting, including rooftop harvesting, to store water for later use.
Government and community preparedness
Early Implementation: Begin drought mitigation measures in May rather than waiting for failure in August.
Crop Insurance: Encourage farmers to enroll in crop insurance schemes to cover financial losses.
Buffer Stocks and Price Control: Utilise existing high food buffer stocks to manage price volatility, particularly for wheat and rice.
Fodder banks: Establish community-based fodder banks for livestock to prevent crises in rural areas.
Monitor vulnerable areas: Use district-level real-time weather data to monitor groundwater levels and prepare for potential migration in hardest-hit areas
Make use of digital tools and mobile applications to bridge the information gap, especially in remotely located rainfed regions, improving preparedness and decision-making.
Household water saving tips
Fix leaks: Repair leaking taps and toilets promptly.
Optimise water usage: Use buckets instead of hoses to wash vehicles and water gardens.
Reuse water: Use wastewater from washing vegetables and laundry for watering plants.
Read more about them here
A weak monsoon is not a setback but a signal. It is a reminder for us to conserve, adapt, innovate and build resilience that protects us in the years ahead.