Climate change poses urgent risks, especially for vulnerable communities. Social protection programs, traditionally focused on poverty alleviation, now play a crucial role in building climate resilience. Proactive measures in social protection can cost-effectively mitigate climate shocks, reducing poverty, improving access to services, and preventing distress migration. These programs contribute to sustainable development by addressing multiple vulnerabilities, enhancing living standards, and fostering economic growth.

Despite their potential, vulnerable countries face challenges such as ineffective beneficiary targeting, limited data, inconsistent coverage, program duplication, underdeveloped early warning systems, inefficient decision-making, and coordination difficulties during crises.

Anticipatory Social Protection Index for Resilience (ASPIRE) Tool

The ASPIRE diagnostic tool evaluates a country's capacity for anticipatory and shock-responsive social protection, considering diverse contexts like climate risks, institutional capacities, and policy frameworks. Assessing policy and systems domains, it identifies gaps and challenges hindering effective integration of anticipatory responses. The tool aids governments in pinpointing areas needing attention, enabling more effective resource allocation by funding agencies.

Tested in eight diverse countries—Malawi, Ghana, Senegal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Uganda, Ethiopia, and India—the ASPIRE tool analyses various social protection programs, offering insights into tailoring them for different climate risks. The ultimate goal is to enhance countries' readiness, address policy and system gaps, and facilitate successful incorporation of insurance-linked anticipatory payout mechanisms to strengthen resilience against climate risks.

More information about the ASPIRE tool can be found here. The complete analysis of the 8 countries and 24 programmes can be found here.

Country analysis: India

This document by the International Institute for Environment and Development ‘India readiness assessment: delivering anticipatory social protection’ provides the full analysis of India’s social protection policies, systems and programmes in terms of their readiness in delivering anticipatory climate resilience, using ASPIRE tool.

India's social protection landscape is characterised by a decentralised approach, with various sectoral policies and programs addressing issues related to health, nutrition, income, water, and food security. Despite the absence of a comprehensive overarching social protection policy, the existing initiatives demonstrate a clear vision, goals, and objectives. Vulnerable sections of society are targeted through policies such as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), the National Food Security Act (NFSA), and the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM KISAN).

These programs incorporate mechanisms for coordination, implementation, and monitoring at various levels, promoting efficient targeting and preventing dependency. MGNREGA, PM KISAN, and NFSA prioritise certain categories of households, using socio-economic and caste census data for beneficiary selection. Guidelines for beneficiary selection are based on deprivation factors, ensuring that those in need receive assistance. The policies aim to avoid creating dependency and encourage active pursuit of livelihood opportunities.

In terms of climate resilience, the MGNREGA program, with a focus on soil and water conservation, drought protection, and land development, contributes to building longer-term climate resilience in rural areas. However, other programs like the Public Distribution System (PDS) and PM KISAN lack specific provisions in this regard.

The policy demonstrates an anticipatory response through provisions in MGNREGA for additional employment in the event of severe drought or natural calamities. However, this response is not explicitly anticipatory. The NFSA and PDS lack anticipatory measures. The systematic policy and planning cycle in India include evidence-based policymaking, public consultations, and regular assessments to enhance program effectiveness. Programs like MGNREGA undergo regular revisions to improve efficiency and transparency.

In terms of policy innovation, the focus is on rights-based regulatory provisions, portable benefits for migrant populations, universal access to benefits, and engagement with community, civil society organisations (CSOs), non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and the private sector. MGNREGA operational guidelines prioritise vulnerable groups, while the NFSA mandates the identification of intended beneficiaries. Despite challenges in implementation, efforts are made to increase awareness through campaigns, radio broadcasts, and social media.

The policy recognises diverse vulnerabilities, with special attention to women, children, the elderly, and marginalised communities. Targeting criteria are transparent, fair, and based on objective indicators. Despite challenges in implementation highlighted by reports, eligible individuals receive benefits through programs like PDS, TPDS, and Direct Benefit Transfer.

Risk definition in the policy identifies types of risk faced by vulnerable communities, but trigger points for hazard events and explicit contingency plans for social protection measures are not clearly defined. The policy acknowledges the heterogeneity of vulnerability, and eligibility criteria are specified to include various vulnerable groups.

The policy specifies assistance types provided through social protection programs, covering multiple thematic areas such as livelihood support, health, food, shelter, and education. The assistance is comprehensive, and efforts are made to ensure transparency, fairness, and objectivity in targeting beneficiaries. Convergence strategies are employed to coordinate various ministries and schemes, breaking down silos for effective implementation.

India's social protection policies and programs exhibit a multifaceted approach, addressing a range of vulnerabilities and challenges. While there are strengths in terms of targeting, innovation, and comprehensive assistance, challenges in implementation and the need for more explicit anticipatory measures and defined trigger points should be addressed for further effectiveness. Regular assessments, revisions, and the incorporation of climate resilience measures demonstrate a commitment to adapt and improve the social protection landscape in the country.

Systems framework for social protection in India

• Financial capacity: India falls into the lower-middle-income category, with an economic dependency index of 0.4. Social protection spending as a percentage of GDP is 1.43%, and the budget for the social sector in 2023–2024 is US$100.77 billion. Despite this, spending on key programs like MGNREGA, NFSA, National Social Assistance Programme, and Mid-Day Meal Scheme has seen a decline over the last decade.
• Administrative capacity: As per the INFORM index, India's government effectiveness is rated at 4.4, and the corruption perception index is 6.0. While the government has made strides in social safety nets through insurance and pension programs, there's room for improvement in administrative effectiveness.
• Fiscal space: India has shown resilience by accessing extra-budgetary resources, including US$1 billion borrowed from the New Development Bank during the COVID-19 pandemic. Private sector financing and the integration of disaster risk financing instruments in social protection programs need further attention.

Infrastructure, technology, and information systems

• Infrastructure: India scores 4.2 in both the communication index and physical connectivity, according to INFORM, showcasing a robust infrastructure.
• National database/Social registry: The Aadhaar system plays a pivotal role, linking data for direct benefit transfers. It's successfully integrated into social protection programs, ensuring efficient targeting and delivery of benefits.
• Climate-Smart Information Systems: While MGNREGS employs the Climate Resilience Information System and Planning tool for planning in climate-stressed areas, other social protection programs lack evidence of climate information system integration.
• Early warning systems (EWSs) and AI: India possesses EWSs for cyclones and floods, covering a substantial portion of the exposed population. However, there's a gap in leveraging these systems for anticipatory or shock-responsive social protection. The CRISP-M tool, integrating AI, is in the pilot phase, focusing on drought EWSs.
• Efficiency and effectiveness in delivery: India has pursued a more efficient system through the 'JAM trinity' and various cash transfer programs. PM KISAN and PMGKY, launched in response to COVID-19, demonstrated positive effects. Direct Benefit Transfer has streamlined payments, transferring ₹366.59 billion during the lockdown.

Institutional mechanisms

• Cross-Ministry/Department coordination: Convergence efforts are evident in MGNREGS, ICDS, PDS, and NRLM. These collaborations aim to address poverty and vulnerability comprehensively, breaking down silos and enhancing program impact.
• Multistakeholder engagement: State governments play a pivotal role, adapting national programs to local needs. Devolution of power to Gram Panchayats ensures decentralised decision-making, active community participation, and effective program tailoring. NGOs and CBOs facilitate program implementation, bringing local expertise and support services.

India's social protection systems exhibit strengths in infrastructure, financial capacity, and certain program integrations. However, opportunities for improvement lie in administrative effectiveness, leveraging fiscal space, integrating climate information systems, and optimising early warning systems for anticipatory protection. The concerted efforts of various ministries, state governments, and local bodies, along with engagement with NGOs and communities, contribute to the resilience and adaptability of India's social protection framework.

The full paper can be accessed here