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While many dryland areas in India are experiencing droughts due to climate change, the Thar desert is greening! With a 38 percent rise in green areas over the previous 20 years, more and more people are settling in the Thar desert. This has transformed the region's landscape, making it more agricultural and urban. Monsoon rainfall has increased by over 64 percent in the region in the last 20 years, which has contributed to the greening effect.
Drylands are characterised by limited water availability, and the Thar is an exception
Drylands are areas with very little water. They get low rainfall, but lose a lot of water through evaporation and plant transpiration, which causes water shortages. Because of this, drylands can't support as much farming, livestock feed, or forest resources. The soil in drylands is easily damaged by wind and water, breaks down minerals quickly, and has low fertility because it lacks organic matter. Drylands make up about 41 percent of the world’s land and 45 percent of farmland. In India, about 70 percent of the land is dryland, and around 1.5 billion people live in these areas.
The Thar Desert is one of the most fragile dryland regions in India and has the highest number of people living in any desert in the world. Also called the Great Indian Desert, it covers 200,000 square kilometers across parts of northwestern India (Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, and Haryana) and southeastern Pakistan. It features sand dunes, dry lake beds, and old river paths, and is home to many plants and animals.
Although the Thar Desert is becoming greener, satellite data shows that human activity and climate change—like unpredictable rainfall and higher temperatures—are putting pressure on the area. It's important to study how these changes will affect plant growth and water supplies in the future.
Why is the Thar greening?
A recent study by Vimal Mishra, Hiren Solanki and Ramakrishna Nemani uses historical records of satellite data to observe changes in population dynamics, vegetation, irrigation infrastructure, and climate and make climate model projections to explore the reasons for the greening in the Thar Desert and its implications for the long-term sustainability of the region.
Among the 14 major deserts, four—Thar, Arabian, Negev, and Eastern Gobi—have seen a significant increase in rainfall over the past 20 years. The Thar region has recorded the highest population growth among all 14 major deserts over the last two decades. This growth has led to an expansion of urban areas and croplands, driven by increased agricultural potential and lower land prices.
Water availability has been a key factor in the growth of urban settlements and agriculture in the Thar Desert. In addition to the rise in rainfall, the Indira Gandhi Canal from northern India has improved water supply in the north-west parts of the Thar, resulting in a significant increase in urban development over the last 20 years.
There has been a significant increase in greenness in the north-central areas of the desert, primarily due to the expansion of crop land as compared to that in the southern and western parts of the desert. The increase in greenness has occurred during two main seasons: the Kharif season (June to September), which coincides with the summer monsoon, and the Rabi season (October to May), which falls outside the monsoon period. During the Kharif season, crops rely on rainfall from the summer monsoon to meet their water needs. In contrast, Rabi season crops grow mainly with the help of irrigation from surface water and groundwater resources.
Human interventions in the Thar are challenging available water resources
Crop growth and irrigation in the region follow distinct patterns. Between 1980 and 2015, the area dedicated to crops increased by 74 percent, and 24 percent of this area accessed water from irrigation. In the northwest region, irrigation primarily comes from canals, whereas in the north central region, groundwater is increasingly being tapped through tubewells, which extract water from deep underground. This has contributed to the area's greening.
While groundwater levels in the northwest, which relies on canals for irrigation, have risen, they have been declining rapidly in the north central region. The increase in groundwater levels in other parts of the Thar is largely due to heightened summer monsoon rainfall, which helps recharge shallow unconfined aquifers.
Groundwater is powering Thar's green transformation, but at a cost
While rainfall is a big reason behind the Thar Desert turning greener, groundwater is quietly playing an equally vital role. During the summer monsoon, rain contributes to about 66 percent of the greening, but interestingly, groundwater still accounts for a significant 34 percent. Outside of the monsoon season, the tables turn—rainfall's share drops to 32 percent, and groundwater becomes the main driver, responsible for 67 percent of the greening during this dry period.
If we look at the bigger picture across the year, the split is almost even: groundwater supports 55 percent of the overall greening, while rainfall contributes 45 percent. This clearly shows how critical groundwater is to sustaining vegetation in the Thar, especially when the skies stay dry.
But there’s a catch and it’s a serious one. Groundwater levels are dropping fast, raising alarms about long-term water security in the region. The balance between what’s being pumped out and what’s naturally replenished just isn’t holding up. Sure, monsoon rains are helping wet-season crops, but farming in the dry season depends heavily on electricity and groundwater extraction.
Given the Thar’s arid climate, it makes sense that solar-powered pumps are now widespread. The region gets plenty of sun, and tapping into that energy helps meet growing water demands. But here’s the concern: only 7 percent of total runoff actually recharges the groundwater. The rest? It’s lost to evaporation and seepage.
So, while groundwater is clearly essential to the desert’s new green face, using it wisely is now more important than ever. Managing how much we extract, finding ways to boost natural recharge, and keeping an eye on long-term sustainability will be key to ensuring the Thar doesn’t run dry just as it starts to bloom.
Can the monsoon save Thar's groundwater? It's complicated.
Monsoons might stick around a bit longer in the future, which could help recharge the Thar’s aquifers. But the picture isn’t entirely rosy. Along with longer monsoons, there has been a rise in extreme heat, both dry and humid, during summer and monsoon months. That heat can lead to water shortages during the dry season, pushing farmers to rely even more on groundwater to keep their crops alive. This extra demand often gets met by drilling more tubewells, which puts even greater stress on already-depleting groundwater reserves.
And then there’s the unpredictability of rainfall thanks to climate change. It’s not just about how much rain we get, but when and how. Sudden bursts of heavy rain can be followed by hot, dry spells during monsoon breaks, throwing farming schedules off balance and creating even more demand for irrigation water. So yes, longer monsoons could help, but only if we also plan for the extremes, and the unpredictability that come with them.
While stronger monsoons may serve as a boon for the region, sustainable groundwater management through efficient irrigation practices, aiding groundwater recharge by catching the rain available through modern and traditional methods, and adaptation to extreme heat conditions will be crucial for sustaining greening in the Thar region, warns the study.
Citation: Vimal Mishra, Hiren Solanki and Ramakrishna Nemani (2025) Greening of the Thar Desert driven by climate change and human interventions. Cell Reports Sustainability, 2 (5), 100364.