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Water is at the heart of everything we need to live, like food security, sanitation, clean energy, and public health. But as cities grow, industries expand, and agriculture demands more, we’re running into a harsh truth that in many parts of the world, water needs are more than what nature can sustainably provide. While agriculture remains the biggest user of water, rapid urbanisation is driving up domestic demand, and the industrial and mining sectors are thirstier than ever. As a result, in many regions, water demand is now outstripping what’s sustainably available.
This crunch in availability of water resources can spell doom for nations such as China, India and the USA, often referred to as breadbasket nations because of the large amounts of wheat and other food grains they produce due to the richness of the soil and a highly favourable climate. Data shows that they account for 41 percent of the global population, 49 percent of surface and ground level water demand, and contribute to 39 percent of food production globally. If their water runs dry, the ripple effects could be global.
Seasonal and local data hold the key to solving water scarcity
In a study titled ‘Deepening water scarcity in breadbasket nations’ published in the journal Nature Communications by Qinyu Deng et al., attempts to bridge this gap by taking into account the lack of availability of seasonal and granular data on water scarcity.
It performs a detailed monthly sub-basin assessment of blue water (i.e., surface and groundwater) demand across key agricultural breadbasket regions such as India, China and the USA from 1980 to 2015. Water scarcity was defined as ‘water demand in exceedance of availability’ for the study.
Water scarcity is becoming hard to ignore in India. The study shows that 61percent of the country’s sub-basins are facing unsustainable water demand for at least four months every year. Even places that were once considered water-rich are now running dry during certain seasons. With unpredictable rains and more frequent droughts, climate change is partly to blame. But overuse of water—especially for farming—along with rapid urban growth and industrial activity, is making things worse. States like Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana, known as India’s breadbasket, are feeling the heat. In Punjab and Haryana, groundwater is being drained fast because of intensive farming of water-hungry crops like wheat and paddy.
In recent years, water scarcity assessments have been conducted to understand how much water people need compared to what’s actually available. Some global reports have pointed out water-scarce areas like northern India, northern China, parts of the US, the Middle East, and eastern Australia. Others have looked at monthly water shortages. But here’s the catch—very few have studied how water demand and supply change across seasons, year after year.
What might be missing is detailed data—broken down by region, month, and sector—that could show us how and why water scarcity is changing over time. That kind of insight is crucial. Without it, many current solutions are being applied in isolation—focused on specific areas or sectors without considering the bigger picture. To tackle water scarcity effectively, we need to understand it at a local level, across different times and places, and with all the people involved in mind.
Irrigation thirst grows: India and China see sharp rise in blue water use for farming
In both India and China, the demand for surface and groundwater used in farming has been climbing steadily over the years. Between 1980 and 2015, China’s irrigation water use jumped by 70 percent, and India’s shot up by a massive 83 percent. In comparison, the US saw only a modest increase of 22 percent.
What’s driving this? A shift in where and how crops are grown, along with water use that’s no longer closely tied to how productive the land is. Today, irrigation takes up most of the blue water—about 95 percent in India, 80 percent in China, and 81percent in the US. That’s a huge chunk going just to grow crops.
India’s growing water crisis has a lot to do with the crops it chooses to grow. Rice, wheat, and sugarcane alone are guzzling up more than two-thirds of the country’s surface and groundwater—29 percent goes to rice, 26 percent to wheat, and 14 percent to sugarcane.
China is in a similar boat, with wheat (20 percent), rice (19 percent), and maize (15 percent) using up over half of its total blue water. In the US, alfalfa and maize are the top water consumers, taking up 25 percent and 22 percent of the total, respectively. A handful of crops are placing a massive strain on already overstretched water supplies.
Crop cycles drive seasonal water demand across India, China, and the US
In central and western India, a wide variety of crops dominate water demand seasonally. In the North China Plain, water demand for wheat increases from October through May, while maize from June to September. In northwest China, wheat (January to April) and cotton (May to November) are the highest water consumers. In the Ogallala Aquifer region of the US Midwest, wheat dominates March to May and is replaced by maize in June to October.
The graphs above show how rice (shown in orange colour) and wheat (shown in red colour) consume the highest volume of blue water at the subbasin level in different parts of India.
Blue water is used more for homes and livestock than irrigation of crops in some sub basins of Eastern India
Crop production is not the dominant water user and water is used for domestic purposes in 10 percent of sub basins of Eastern India.
In contrast, 41 percent of the sub basins in central western China use blue water for livestock and 35 percent sub basins in eastern US use blue water to meet their domestic, livestock and power generation needs besides irrigation.
Unsustainable water demand is increasing in sub basins of India
Unsustainable water demand is on the rise across India’s sub-basins, and it’s pushing the limits of what nature can provide. When blue water demand goes beyond what’s available, it can dry up rivers, drain reservoirs, and deplete groundwater.
The study shows that water use across all sectors—agriculture, domestic, livestock, electricity, mining, and manufacturing—is driving this trend. In fact, 61percent of India’s sub-basins face at least four months of water scarcity each year—compared to 32 percent in China and 27 percent in the US. That’s a clear sign that India’s water stress is becoming both widespread and deeply rooted.
Seasonal water demand is rising and it’s showing clear patterns
Water demand isn’t just growing — it’s also becoming more seasonal, especially during key crop-growing months in China, India, and the US.
Back in the early 1980s, peak unsustainable use of water in China was mainly in May. But by 2011–2015, that demand grew by 30 percent in May and a massive 101 percent in June, mainly because of the growing maize cultivation.
From 1980–1984 to 2011–2015, unsustainable water demand in the USA jumped by 48 percent in July and 49 percent in August, largely due to crops like alfalfa and maize. However, this growth has leveled off since the late 1990s.
In India, the situation is more worrying. Unsustainable water use keeps rising — +57 percent in March, +66 percent in April, and +99 percent in May — driven by water-hungry crops like irrigated wheat and rice. What’s more, this growing pressure has shifted north and central, into areas typically seen as water-abundant, including parts of the south and west.
Regionally, the patterns are just as clear. China’s unsustainable demand is highest in the dry northwest and the fertile northeast. In the US, it’s the western half of the country that’s most affected. And in India, areas once considered “safe” are now showing signs of serious seasonal stress.
Unsustainable water extractions in water scarce areas are mostly used to grow five crops
The rise in blue water demand in the three countries is being met unsustainably by increasing water abstractions in locations where demand already exceeds availability. This water is mostly used to grow just five crops like rice, wheat, corn, maize, and cotton.
Tackling water scarcity means looking at the big picture—Across entire river basins
Solving water scarcity isn’t just about saving water locally—it requires a broader look at how water flows across entire river basins of the country and how different regions are connected. The study highlights a range of strategies that India, China, and the US are already exploring to manage their growing water stress.
Here are some recommended strategies:
1. Use market-based tools:
Introducing water rights and pricing mechanisms can help allocate water more efficiently.
2. Boost water supply:
Transfer water from regions with plenty to those facing shortages.
Tap into alternative sources like stormwater or treated wastewater.
3. Protect and preserve water sources:
Encourage low-flow appliances at home.
Enforce water use restrictions during high-demand months.
Offer incentives to households and farmers to reduce water use.
Run public awareness campaigns to promote conservation.
4. Make agriculture more water-wise:
Improve irrigation systems to reduce leakage and evaporation.
Set limits on how much water can be used, especially in stressed areas.
Expand irrigation in places where water is more abundant.
Encourage growing crops that need less water but give better yields.
Promote fallowing (temporarily not planting) in overused areas.
5. Rethink what we grow and eat:
Import food from water-rich areas can help, instead of growing it locally.
Cut down on food waste.
Encourage dietary shifts toward less water-intensive foods.
6. Recycle and reuse water:
It is best to use treated water wherever possible—whether for farming, industry, or even certain domestic needs.
The study mentions, “While many of these solutions have been attempted by a variety of context-specific intervention programs within our study countries, these solutions are typically implemented in isolation (e.g., within a single sub-basin or river reach by an individual agency) and often do not account for the hydrologic interconnectivity of interventions and their potentially cascading influences on other parts of a river basin. As such, isolated or siloed interventions can act at counter-purposes to one another and potentially exacerbate water scarcity issues in other sub-basins.”
Water problems need local solutions—Not one-size-fits-all fixes
The study makes a strong case: to truly understand and fix water scarcity, we need to zoom in—not just look at it on a national or regional level, but down to districts, subdistricts, and even talukas. Why? Because water availability can vary drastically depending on local factors like climate, landscape, and geology. Plus, water needs and supply also change with the seasons.
In this context, blanket, top-down solutions won’t cut it. What we need instead are multi-layered and well-timed strategies—solutions that consider both the short-term and long-term, and work across different scales of geography. These must be carefully planned to balance the needs of all water users—whether it’s for farming, drinking, industry, or the environment.
The study also points out that this kind of nuanced planning must be backed by real investment:
In strong water infrastructure
In policies that bring different sectors together
And in better data—through solid measurement, modeling, and water accounting
When communities truly understand how limited and valuable water is, they’re more likely to support smart decisions that help balance water use with food security, energy needs, and environmental protection.