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Devika Mistry,
Strategic Foresight Group |
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Strategic Foresight Group has brought out a report that identifies emerging issues that will have an impact on global security and economy during next decade. India Water Portal caught up with Devika Mistry author of the chapter on water scarcity to understand her views.
Is water scarcity actually a major problem that could lead to problems in food security?
We need to understand that 97% of water is oceanic water, 2% is in polar ice caps and merely 1% of water is available. This 1% translates to 69000 cubic km of water annually, which translates to 4400 cubic meters per person per year. India however has only 1800 cubic meters of water per person, which is very close to 1700 cubic meters per person per year that is considered water stress level. Indian water availability is expected to decline to 1340 cubic meters per person per year in next two decades. And that is close to dangerous level of water scarcity of 1000 cubic meters per person per year. Water availability in India was around 5174 cubic meters per person in 1960s and this has declined to present levels of 1800 cubic meter per person.
Almost 70% of water is used for agriculture and shortage of water can impact agriculture and food security. Domestic use of water is very limited – however one observes great variability in its usage from 700 liters per person per day in Canada to around 45 liters per person per day in Africa.
Since 97% of water is oceanic, have desalination technologies been explored?
Water availability through desalination technologies have increased production from 39.9 mn cubic meters/day in 2006 to 64.3 mn cubic meters/day by 2010 and further to 97.5 mn cubic meters/day by 2015. However desalination involves huge costs and cost of desalinated water comes to around 40 cents per cubic meter. But there are cheaper technologies that need to be explored first for increasing water availability.
Water prices are increasing everywhere. Water prices have increased by 25-50% in UK, US and Australia in last 5 years
You have mentioned in report that economies such as US generated 1 dollar of GDP with 3.8 liters of water, whereas India takes 880 liters and China takes 330 liters of water to generate 1 $ of GDP. Is this because of agricultural focus of economies?
That is simplifying the issue. It is true that a large amount of water is mainly used for agriculture. But industrial activities also require water. One finds that industrial activities requiring huge amount of water are being shifted from developed world to developing nations.
However it is true that agriculture does consume substantial water. Hence technologies need to be explored for increasing efficiency of water usage here. It takes much less amount of water to generate unit of crop output, say rice in Korea or Japan than say in China. So technologies in genetics or even irrigation that can improve efficiency of water usage need to be explored such as drip irrigation.
Are wars over water actual possibilities?
If one examines historical data, war over water seems like a science fiction. A study by Oregon University in 2001 found that in past 50 years there have been 1800 interactions at international level due to water. 1200 of them have led to cooperation and 500 of them have led to conflicts. A mere 18 of them have led to wars – mainly in the middle east between Israel and its neighbours.
So war over water seems unlikely. But consider the case of Turkey. There are water sharing agreements. But situation can be volatile. In case of India and Pakistan situation is more tense. Pakistan is soon reaching its water scarcity level by 2010. So a conflict between India and Pakistan over water, is not unlikely, perhaps not as a direct reason but as a subsidiary reason.
How does one create an environment where we realize the importance of water?
Something the way it has happened in West. The societal consciousness needs to be created from individual level. We need to share technologies on water efficiency. Technologies such as drip irrigation can reduce water demand substantially as also better agricultural productivity. Again there is room for economy in domestic usage of water. Government needs to step in with stricter policies that can be politically unpopular.
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